Dear Readers and Fellow Investors,
as most of you know, we at mineninvestor have a strong focus on undervalued Royalty plays. Royalty Stocks of course where the only segment in the mining market, which were able to substancially outperform the Bullion over the past 5-6 years!
Now we found a Royalty Portfolio that is in terms of timeline a little behind our favourite Royalty Stock PREMIER ROYALTY (T.NSR), but in terms of quality and growth profile maybe even better.
GOLDEN PREDATOR (T.GPD) really holds a Diamond here that has yet to be discovered by the market. Especially since ALL it`s Royalty Interests apply to underlying assts in save juristdictions and most of them are run by proven Goldminers/Developers, such as BARRICK or MIDWAY.
The market most likely has not yet discovered the true value, because T.GPD currently presents itself as a developer for a yukon mine. But we actually think, the Royalty portfolio might even be of much greater value. In the following presentation of a potential growth profile as well as the most prominent Royalties and it´s underlying assets, we have only assumed those run by Barrick, Midway and Silver Scott to go into production. All others given no value.
Such a Royalty Portfolio spun-off from the Development Company should recieve a minimum of 120million $ in marketcap imidiatly, and that would be conservativly priced in Comparison to Peers, such as T.SSL/T.NSR/T.FNV/T.RGL and to recent transactions, like the Franco Nevada takeover of Lumina Coppers Royalty portfolio for 66m$.
T.GPD (unfortunatly) decided to use the portfolio as colleteral for a loan, to built their Brewery Creek mine, but as it is only a small debt burden and the Royalty Revenue still goes to T.GPD this should not hurt too much.There is still the possibility of early repayment and earlier than anticipated spin-off.
However, given the current marketcap of 44million, T.GPD is most likely the most undervalued Gold-Royalty play ever! even if you`d assume only half the projects would ever go into production it looks undervalued.
Pls check this article for your DD and comparison with T.GPD`s royalty portfolio:
Gold Royalty Stocks – Overview&Comparison Part I
Helpfull links for your own DD:
http://www.goldenpredator.com/index.html
http://www.gowebcasting.com/events/precious-metals-summit-conferences-llc/2012/09/07/golden-predator-corp/play/stream/5432
Annual growth profile: (assuming 1700US$/oz goldprice and acc. to publicly avialable information, should not be assumed 100% accurate)
2013/2014:
approx. 2million in bullion and cash from mostly preproduction royaltys*
2014/2015
Events:
Silver Scotts Quitovac Mine – 10% NSR and Midways PAN deposit – 4% GSR coming into production
Expected attributable ounces: 2600-3000
Expected Royalty Revenue: 4.4-5.1 million US$
2015/2016
Events:
PAN and Quitovac in full production -> Barrick Bald Mountain-Alligator Ridge Area 1% GSR start up
Expected attributable ounces: 5000-6000
Expected Royalty Revenue: 8,5-10,2 million US$
2016/2017
Events: Pan/Quitovac/Alligator Ridge producing ->Midways GOLD ROCK deposit – 4% GSR start up
Expected attributable ounces: 9000-11.000
Expected Royalty Revenue: 15,3 – 18,7 million US$
2017/2018:
Events: Pan/Quitovac/Alligator Ridge/Gold Rock producing -> Barrick Bald Mountain – Trapper 4% GSR in production
-> several expansions planned, such as at PAN to double production to 160k p.a.
Expected attributable ounces: 14.000-17.000
Expected Royalty Revenue: 23,8 – 28,9 million US$
2019 …..2022….
BLUE SKY!!!
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Barrick Bald Mountain – Trapper 4% GSR, (approx 0.5m P&P)
could net 4000oz p.a. – sometimes in the next few years, in the mine plan
Barrick Bald Mountain-Alligator Ridge Area 1% GSR
(approx. 1million oz M&I incl. 0.66m P&P)
100-150k ounces per annum from 2015 on- net in 1000-1500oz p.a.
http://www.barrick.com/operations/north-america/bald-mountain/default.aspx
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Midways PAN deposit – 4% GSR (1.2million oz M&I incl 0.8m P&P)
start up mid 2014 @ 80k ounces – net in 3200 oz
expansion 2017 @ 160k ounces – net in 6400 oz
Midways GOLD ROCK deposit – 4% GSR (M&I 0.6million ounces)
start up mid 2016 @ 80k ounces – net in 3200oz
expansion mid 2018 @ 100l ounces – net in 4000oz
http://www.midwaygold.com/s/Home.asp
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Silver Scotts Quitovac Mine – 10%/6% NSR (resource unkown)
start up mid 2014 @ 40k ounces – net in approx 2000oz
https://www.edelmetallmesse.com/upload/datenblatt//datenblatt_472.pdf
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McEwanMinings Tonkin Springs – 1,4%NSR (M&I 1.5millionn oz Au)
http://www.mcewenmining.com/Operations/Tonkin-Development/default.aspx
(Applies after 230k oz produced)
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Silver Predators Taylor Mine – 1-2% NSR (M&I 15million oz Silver)
possible start up 2016/2017 – net in approx 1000oz Ag? = 20z AUeq
http://www.silverpredator.com/presentations.html
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Evolving Golds Rattlesnake – 0,5% NSR
http://www.evolvinggold.com/s/Rattlesnake_Hills.asp
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PLUS: 22 early stage Royalties with uncertain value and no publicly disclosed plans. But still some value!
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*Gold Standard Royalty Portfolio 2011 Fiscal Year The Company is also pleased to provide a report on its royalty portfolio for the recently completed fiscal year. The Company received advance royalty payments totalling over $850,000, as well as 9.998 troy ounces of gold, bringing the total gold held on account at Johnson Matthey to 143.072 troy ounces.
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Legal Notice / Disclaimer
This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Martin Hoff has based this document on information obtained from sources he believes to be reliable but which has not been independently verified; Martin Hoff makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Martin Hoff only and are subject to change without notice. Martin Hoff assumes no warranty, liability or guarantee for the current relevance, correctness or completeness of any information provided within this Report and will not be held liable for the consequence of reliance upon any opinion or statement contained herein or any omission. Furthermore, I, Martin Hoff, assume no liability for any direct or indirect loss or damage or, in particular, for lost profit, which you may incur as a result of the use and existence of the information provided within this Report.
